Q1 Turnover Rate of 0.63% Is Second-Lowest on Record; Full-Year Estimate 2.51% to 2.68%

The turnover rate measures the number of homes that completed sale transfers during a period as a share of the nationwide housing stock. In Q1 2026, the nationwide housing stock was 9,644,000 units, and the single-quarter turnover rate was 0.63%. As a rule of thumb, a turnover rate of 5% or above is considered hot, 4% to 5% is stable, 3% to 4% is cool, and below 3% means depressed demand.

Ho believes the 2026 full-year turnover rate will be between 2.51% and 2.68%, meaning two consecutive years in the depressed range below 3%; the 2025 turnover rate was 2.73%. Looking back to 2016, the year the Integrated Housing and Land Tax 1.0 took effect, there were 245,300 units transferred in sales, the housing stock was 8,602,700 units, and the annualized turnover rate was 2.85%.

Ho analyzed that the central bank introduced its seventh round of credit controls in September 2024, after home prices had already risen, with gains in central and southern Taiwan exceeding those in the north. Income growth could not keep up with home prices, and buyers and sellers both turned to a wait-and-see stance in 2025, which pushed the annualized turnover rate below 3%. He also relayed the view of experts that Taiwan's strong stock market performance in 2026 has drawn away a lot of capital, which is likewise a factor behind weak demand.

In early November 2026, Taiwan's stock market fell for several days in a row, with the index at one point dropping below 40,000 points, and the decline has now lasted a month. Experts point out that although the central bank eased housing market policies in September 2026, the outlook for the housing market in Q4 should still be cautious. Ho believes the market is still waiting for stocks to rise again, and the effect of stock profits flowing into the housing market will not appear soon; the number of homes transferred in sales and the volume of presale home deals in Q4 are expected to recover gradually, but only to a limited extent.

Hsu Chia-hsin, executive director of the Zhushang Real Estate Planning and Research Office, said that many people were unable to exit during this decline and that home loans are still not easy to obtain, so it is hard for stock market money to shift noticeably into the housing market in the short term. Chang Ting-hsuan, associate professor in the Department of Finance at Jinwen University of Science and Technology, believes the housing market bottomed out around Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, and that unless there is a major stock market crash in Taiwan, a major favorable housing policy, or military conflict, it is hard to see any clear change in the short term.